Bitcoin is on course for a second consecutive October decline, an unwelcome milestone for an asset whose fans nicknamed the month ‘Uptober’ for its history of strong gains. With hours left in the month, bitcoin traded near $76,300, down more than 8 per cent since October began, against a long-run average October gain of roughly 18 per cent.
The October decline that broke the pattern
From 2013 to 2025, bitcoin rose in ten of thirteen Octobers. This year’s decline follows a 3.95 per cent fall in October 2025, a month remembered for an all-time high followed days later by a flash crash. This time the pressure has come from several directions at once: a record-breaking exchange hack, a technology stock sell-off that soured risk appetite, and waves of forced liquidations. We track the market’s mood in our money coverage.
Sentiment at fearful levels
Trader sentiment has swung hard. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits around 30, deep in ‘fear’ territory, down from 74 a month ago. Total crypto market value stands near $2.7 trillion, with bitcoin accounting for almost 58 per cent of it, so when bitcoin catches a cold the rest of the market still sneezes. As the market live coverage described, an attempted late-morning bounce on Friday was quickly snuffed out as US stocks slid to session lows.
What traders watch next
Analysts say the $75,000 level is the line to watch: hold it, and the market can rebuild; lose it decisively, and stop-loss orders could accelerate the fall. Institutional flows offer one counterweight, with crypto funds recently recording a $3.55 billion inflow week that turned cumulative bitcoin ETF flows for the year positive.
‘Uptober’ may need rebranding, but seasoned bitcoin holders will point out that the asset’s biggest rallies have often followed its most miserable months. Whether November revives that pattern depends less on superstition than on whether the selling pressure from hacks and liquidations finally exhausts itself.
